Perspectives for domestic cereals market

| Polish Market |

Falling prices of cereals in Poland result from bumper harvest in the country and in the world. However, the forecast shows that this year the crops will be lower that the year before.

How much will be picked?

This year’s volume of basic grains (including barley, wheat, rye, triticale and cereal mixes) is estimated to reach 24.1 million tonnes. The growth concerns wheat (by 9%), rye (by 14%) and triticale (by 27%). However, less barley (by 30%) and cereal mixes (by 22%) will be collected. Maize crops will reach 3.9 million tonnes, 2.3% less than last year.

The size of domestic consumption

Experts forecast that market demand shall reach 26.8 million tonnes. Low consumption and smaller demand will push prices down, resulting in using cereals for industrial purposes, e. g. the production of biofuel. Expected growing scale of poultry production is not sufficient to offset the fall in the production of pork. In the end, less cereals will be needed as fodder. Estimates say that this market will reach 16 million tonnes, or 2% less than in the previous year.

Foreign trade

The most Polish cereals are currently exported to Spain, Ireland, Germany, North African countries and Saudi Arabia. At the beginning of this season (in July and August 2013) 23% more cereals were exported than in the same period of 2012/2013 season. Similar trends were observed in the case of primary processing (growth by 31%) and highly processed cereals products (growth by 8%). However, experts believe that the quantity of grain supply and cereal products will decrease due to diminishing stock in the country and good harvest in the leading European cereal producing states. Therefore, the forecast export might reach 2.9 million tonnes (compared to 4.5 million in 2012/2013), while import of cereal products, resulting from expected market shortages, may reach 1.7 million tonnes.