2013/2014 Season – A time of stockpiling
Relying on numerous pieces of news coming from various countries in recent weeks, it has become possible to prepare a forecast regarding the situation on global markets in 2013/2014 season.
Import plans of China
We have learned that People’s Republic of China is going to import as much as 66 million tonnes of soy in 2013/14. Compared to data from previous years, this figure will constitute a record high. However, the quantity of imported soy is lower than USDA estimate. The figure will be higher by 7 million tonnes than in the preceding season, where soy imports reached 59.2 million tonnes.
The situation of wheat market
Following the publication of USDA report, the price of wheat is currently falling. This results from the fact that the 2013/14 wheat harvest forecast is 701.1 million tonnes. Another factor pushing prices downward is the promising crops in Russia, Australia, Canada and the European Union.
USDA forecast is higher than an earlier prognosis by United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization, which mentioned 695 million tonnes as well as a forecast of The International Grains Council, which was announced last Thursday and spoke of 680 million tonnes.
Influence on food safety
Stockpiling of agricultural produce is absolutely indispensable in the context of safeguarding the food resources for the world population. At the moment, global grains stock would suffice for around 70 days of consumption. Such inventory is an attempt at protecting the global market from fluctuations of demand for grains. Current reserves are fairly low, which will influence the prices of grains on the market, especially combined with optimistic forecast concerning harvest and production.