What will be the price of wheat in 2014?

| Prospects & Investment |

The passing of 2012 is a good occasion to compare the situation on the wheat market in this and the previous years. Also, beginning of 2013 is a suitable time to prepare forecast of prices of wheat in the twelve months of 2013 and in 2014.

Summing up of the previous years and perspectives for the future

YEAR

PRICE OF WHEAT (PER TON)

2011

950 PLN/T

2012

850 PLN/T

2013

1050 PLN/T

2014

950-1000 PLN/T (forecast)

 

We should be aware of the systematic growth of prices of wheat on the global markets. It is fairly certain that the upward trend is likely to continue. Among factors which cause price increases are:

a)  Low levels of global wheat stock (especially in India and China),

b)  High prices of oil and the needy budgets in OPEC member countries,

c)  High prices of ammonia resulting from increased demand from US corn plantations,

d)  Wheat harvest likely to be poor in Russia and Ukraine (due to bad weather and reduced acreage of plantations),

e)  Corn sowing scale in 2013/14 forecast to remain on a high level,

f)  Players on the market expecting a reversal of trends: prices of wheat higher than prices of edible corn,

g)  2013/14 season will be a “rebound” time, when food producers will try to make up for the loss of the previous year,

h)  Forecast announced by market analysts at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, Rabobanka are Societe Generale.

Estimated price of wheat

According to our estimates, in 2014 the price of a ton of wheat shall be between 950 – 1000 PLN.

While making such prognosis, we mustn't forget that the current price of wheat is highest in history (excluding May 2011).

wykres pl